Purpose: This study aims to design a comprehensive model for developing business models under economic uncertainty, emphasizing game theory and behavioral economics in strategic decision-making. Methodology: A mixed-methods sequential-exploratory design was employed. In the qualitative phase, 24 semi-structured interviews were conducted with senior managers and strategic experts in Iran, and data were analyzed using Braun and Clarke's six-stage thematic analysis via MAXQDA 2022. In the quantitative phase, a researcher-developed questionnaire was distributed among 430 managers and senior experts across five industry clusters; 412 analyzable questionnaires were returned (95.8% response rate). Data were analyzed using SPSS 26 and SmartPLS 4 through PLS-SEM and Importance-Performance Analysis (IPMA). Findings: The model comprises three principal dimensions: strategic environment awareness, behavioral dynamics of decision-makers, and competitive game structure. All three dimensions significantly influenced business model effectiveness. Behavioral dynamics exhibited the greatest influence (β = 0.42, t = 7.12), followed by strategic environment awareness (β = 0.31, t = 5.84) and competitive game structure (β = 0.27, t = 5.23). The model explained 58% of the variance in effectiveness (R² = 0.58), with satisfactory predictive relevance (Q² = 0.42) and goodness-of-fit (GoF = 0.61). Conclusion: The proposed model offers a comprehensive analytical framework for organizations confronting economic uncertainty. Integrating game theory and behavioral economics facilitates anticipating competitors' behavior and recognizing decision-makers' cognitive biases. Managers should prioritize cognitive bias management, strengthen multi-scenario analysis, and continuously monitor their industry's competitive structure.
Naseri,B . (2026). Business Model Design under Economic Uncertainty: Integrating Game Theory and Behavioral Economics in Strategic Decision-Making. Modern Studies in Management and Organization, 2(4), 91-115. doi: 10.22034/jmsmo.2026.601906.1059
MLA
Naseri,B . "Business Model Design under Economic Uncertainty: Integrating Game Theory and Behavioral Economics in Strategic Decision-Making", Modern Studies in Management and Organization, 2, 4, 2026, 91-115. doi: 10.22034/jmsmo.2026.601906.1059
HARVARD
Naseri B. (2026). 'Business Model Design under Economic Uncertainty: Integrating Game Theory and Behavioral Economics in Strategic Decision-Making', Modern Studies in Management and Organization, 2(4), pp. 91-115. doi: 10.22034/jmsmo.2026.601906.1059
CHICAGO
B Naseri, "Business Model Design under Economic Uncertainty: Integrating Game Theory and Behavioral Economics in Strategic Decision-Making," Modern Studies in Management and Organization, 2 4 (2026): 91-115, doi: 10.22034/jmsmo.2026.601906.1059
VANCOUVER
Naseri B. Business Model Design under Economic Uncertainty: Integrating Game Theory and Behavioral Economics in Strategic Decision-Making. JMSMO. 2026;2(4):91-115. doi: 10.22034/jmsmo.2026.601906.1059
