Modern Studies in Management and Organization

Modern Studies in Management and Organization

Business Model Design under Economic Uncertainty: Integrating Game Theory and Behavioral Economics in Strategic Decision-Making

Document Type : Original Article | English

Author
Assistant Prof., Department of Management, Zah.C., Islamic Azad University, Zahedan, Iran.
Abstract
Purpose: This study aims to design a comprehensive model for developing business models under economic uncertainty, emphasizing game theory and behavioral economics in strategic decision-making.
Methodology: A mixed-methods sequential-exploratory design was employed. In the qualitative phase, 24 semi-structured interviews were conducted with senior managers and strategic experts in Iran, and data were analyzed using Braun and Clarke's six-stage thematic analysis via MAXQDA 2022. In the quantitative phase, a researcher-developed questionnaire was distributed among 430 managers and senior experts across five industry clusters; 412 analyzable questionnaires were returned (95.8% response rate). Data were analyzed using SPSS 26 and SmartPLS 4 through PLS-SEM and Importance-Performance Analysis (IPMA).
Findings: The model comprises three principal dimensions: strategic environment awareness, behavioral dynamics of decision-makers, and competitive game structure. All three dimensions significantly influenced business model effectiveness. Behavioral dynamics exhibited the greatest influence (β = 0.42, t = 7.12), followed by strategic environment awareness (β = 0.31, t = 5.84) and competitive game structure (β = 0.27, t = 5.23). The model explained 58% of the variance in effectiveness (R² = 0.58), with satisfactory predictive relevance (Q² = 0.42) and goodness-of-fit (GoF = 0.61).
Conclusion: The proposed model offers a comprehensive analytical framework for organizations confronting economic uncertainty. Integrating game theory and behavioral economics facilitates anticipating competitors' behavior and recognizing decision-makers' cognitive biases. Managers should prioritize cognitive bias management, strengthen multi-scenario analysis, and continuously monitor their industry's competitive structure.
Keywords
Subjects

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Volume 2, Issue 4 - Serial Number 8
This issue is designated as Winter 2026 and was published with a delay in September 2026.
Winter 2026
Pages 91-115

  • Receive Date 16 January 2026
  • Revise Date 01 March 2026
  • Accept Date 03 March 2026
  • Publish Date 20 February 2026