مطالعات نوین در مدیریت و سازمان

مطالعات نوین در مدیریت و سازمان

ارزیابی ریسک در پروژه طرح‌ریزی و راه‌اندازی تولید محصول بلوک سیلندر خودرو شاهین (شرکت مورد مطالعه: شرکت مالیبل سایپا)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 استادیار، گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران
2 کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران
چکیده
هدف از تحقیق حاضر، ارزیابی ریسک در پروژه طرح‌ریزی و راه‌اندازی تولید محصول بلوک سیلندر خودرو شاهین می‌باشد. این تحقیق از نظر ماهیت، اکتشافی بوده که به دنبال ارزیابی ریسک در پروژه طرح‌ریزی و راه‌اندازی تولید محصول بلوک سیلندر خودرو شاهین در شرکت مالیبل سایپا با رویکرد تاپسیس، ماتریس ریسک و سیستم خبره مونت کارلو می‌باشد. بدین منظور با بررسی مقاله‌ها و مصاحبه با خبرگان مدل مفهومی ابعاد شاخص‌های مزایای اقتصادی، شاخص‌های مزایای تکنولوژی، شاخص‌های آمادگی‌های تکنولوژی شناسایی شدند که هر یک دارای زیرمعیارهای مختص به خود بودند. بدین واسطه و با استفاده از روش تاپسیس به رتبه‌بندی در هر یک از شاخص‌های شناسایی شده پرداخته شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که مهم‌ترین معیارها به ترتیب: مزیت نسبی، دانش تکنولوژیک، حمایت مدیریت عالی، قطعیت، سودآوری، امنیت، نرخ بازده سرمایه، دانش و مهارت‌های لازم، مشاهده‌پذیری، سازگاری، سرمایه‌گذاری مالی کافی، استانداردهایIT، مهارت‌های IT، پیچیدگی و زیرساخت‌های فناوری به دست آمدند. همچنین، با توجه به نتایج به دست آمده از جمع ضرایب در هر بُعد، مهم‌ترین ابعاد شناسایی شدند به طوری که ترتیب ابعاد شناسایی شده عبارت بودند از مزایای تکنولوژی، عوامل سازمانی، مزایای اقتصادی و آمادگی‌های تکنولوژی. همچنین، مبتنی بر شبیه‌سازی مونت کارلو 11 حالت مختلف مورد بررسی قرار گرفت که نتایج نشان از صحت نتایج در ارتباط با شدت ریسک‌های شناسایی شده را نشان داد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Risk Assessment in the Project of Planning and Launching the Production of Shahin Automobile Cylinder Block (Case of Saipa Malleable Company)

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Khalilzadeh 1
Shahab Ziabakhsh Kalkhoran 2
Mohammad Hossein Kashani 2
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran
2 Master's degree, Department of Industrial Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran
چکیده English

The purpose of the present study is to assess the risk in planning and launching the production of the cylinder block of the Shahin automobile. This research is exploratory, which seeks to determine the risk in planning and launching the production of the cylinder block of the Shahin automobile in the Saipa Company using the TOPSIS approach, risk matrix, and Monte Carlo expert system. For this purpose, by reviewing articles and interviewing experts, the conceptual model dimensions of economic benefit indicators, technology benefit indicators, and technology readiness indicators were identified, each of which had its sub-criteria. In this way, and using the TOPSIS method, rankings were given in each of the identified indicators. The results of the study showed that the most important criteria were obtained in the following order: comparative advantage, technological knowledge, top management support, certainty, profitability, security, rate of return on capital, necessary knowledge and skills, observability, compatibility, sufficient financial investment, IT standards, IT skills, complexity and technology infrastructure. Also, according to the results obtained from the sum of the coefficients in each dimension, the most important dimensions were identified, so that the order of the identified dimensions was technological benefits, organizational factors, economic benefits, and technological readiness. Furthermore, based on a Monte Carlo simulation, 11 different cases were examined, which showed the accuracy of the results about the severity of the identified risks.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Risk Matrix
Monte Carlo Expert System
Risk Assessment
Production Planning and Launch Project
Adetunji, O., Bischoff, J., & Willy, C. J. (2018). Managing system obsolescence via multicriteria decision making. Systems Engineering, 21(4), 307-321.
Banaeian, N., Mobli, H., Fahimnia, B., Nielsen, I. E., & Omid, M. (2018). Green supplier selection using fuzzy group ‎decision making methods: A case study from the agri-food industry. Computers & Operations Research, 89, 337-347. [In Persian]
Cook, M. C., & Mo, J. P. (2022). Architectural approach for analysing and managing innovation in complex system design projects. Product: Management and Development, 20(1).
Derakhshanfar, H., Ochoa, J. J., Kirytopoulos, K., Mayer, W., & Tam, V. W. (2019). Construction delay risk taxonomy, associations and regional contexts: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management. [In Persian]
Dey, P. K. (2010). Managing project risk using combined analytic hierarchy process and risk map. Applied Soft Computing, 10(4), 990-1000.
Dobos, I., & Vörösmarty, G. (2019). Inventory-related costs in green supplier selection problems with Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). International Journal of Production Economics, 209, 374-380.
Dogan, O. (2021). Process mining technology selection with spherical fuzzy AHP and sensitivity analysis. Expert Systems with Applications, 178, 114999.
Faghih-Roohi, S., Akcay, A., Zhang, Y., Shekarian, E., & de Jong, E. (2020). A group risk assessment approach for the selection of pharmaceutical product shipping lanes. International Journal of Production Economics, 229, 107774. [In Persian]
Fouladgar, M. M., Yazdani-Chamzini, A., & Zavadskas, E. K. (2012). Risk evaluation of tunneling projects. Archives of civil and mechanical engineering, 12(1), 1-12. [In Persian]
Grassi, A., Gamberini, R., Mora, C., & Rimini, B. (2009). A fuzzy multi-attribute model for risk evaluation in workplaces. Safety science, 47(5), 707-716.
Islam, M. S., Sadiq, R., Rodriguez, M. J., Najjaran, H., Francisque, A., & Hoorfar, M. (2013). Evaluating water quality failure potential in water distribution systems: a fuzzy-TOPSIS-OWA-based methodology. Water resources management, 27(7), 2195-2216.
Karamoozian, A., & Wu, D. (2020). A hybrid risk prioritization approach in construction projects using failure mode and effective analysis. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(9), 2661-2686.
KarimiAzari, A., Mousavi, N., Mousavi, S. F., & Hosseini, S. (2011). Risk assessment model selection in construction industry. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(8), 9105-9111. [In Persian]
Koc, K., & Gurgun, A. P. (2021). Ambiguity factors in construction contracts entailing conflicts. Engineering. Construction and Architectural Management, 29(5). https://doi.org/http://doi.org/10.1108/ecam-04-2020-0254
Koulinas, G. K., Demesouka, O. E., Sidas, K. A., & Koulouriotis, D. E. (2021). A TOPSIS—risk matrix and Monte Carlo expert system for risk assessment in engineering projects. Sustainability, 13(20), 11277.
Koulinas, G. K., Xanthopoulos, A. S., Tsilipiras, T. T., & Koulouriotis, D. E. (2020). Schedule delay risk analysis in construction projects with a simulation-based expert system. Buildings, 10(8), 134.
Micheli, G. J., Cagno, E., Mustillo, G., & Trianni, A. (2020). Green supply chain management drivers, practices and ‎performance: A comprehensive study on the moderators. Journal of Cleaner Production, 259, 121024.
Ntzeremes, P., & Kirytopoulos, K. (2018). Applying a stochastic-based approach for developing a quantitative risk assessment method on the fire safety of underground road tunnels. Tunnelling and underground space technology, 81, 619-631.
Samvedi, A., Jain, V., & Chan, F. T. (2013). Quantifying risks in a supply chain through integration of fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS. International Journal of Production Research, 51(8), 2433-2442.
Song, W., Zhu, J., Wang, H., & Chang, A. (2020). Multistage risk assessment of direct delivery business from local oil refineries in Sinopec Group based on normal cloud model. International Journal of Production Research, 58(18), 5624-5650.
Vahdani, B., Salimi, M., & Charkhchian, M. (2015). A new FMEA method by integrating fuzzy belief structure and TOPSIS to improve risk evaluation process. The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 77(1), 357-368. [In Persian]
Vanhoucke, M. (2011). On the dynamic use of project performance and schedule risk information during projecttracking. Omega, 39(4), 416-426.
Wan, N., Li, L., Ye, C., & Wang, B. (2019). Risk assessment in intelligent manufacturing process: a case study of an optical cable automatic arranging robot. Ieee Access, 7, 105892-105901.
Wang, W., Zhou, L., Chen, W., & Wu, C. (2022). Research on the coordination characteristics and interaction between the innovation-driven development and green development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(16), 22952-22969.
Wu, L. Z., Li, S. H., Zhang, M., & Zhang, L. M. (2019). A new method for classifying rock mass quality based on MCS and TOPSIS. Environmental earth sciences, 78(6), 1-11.
Yatsalo, B., Korobov, A., Öztayşi, B., Kahraman, C., & Martínez, L. (2020). A general approach to fuzzy TOPSIS based on the concept of fuzzy multicriteria acceptability analysis. Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, 38(1), 979-995.
Yazdani, M., Chatterjee, P., Zavadskas, E. K., & Zolfani, S. H. (2017). Integrated QFD-‎MCDM framework for green supplier selection. Journal of Cleaner Production, 142, 3728-3740. [In Persian]
Zhang, L., Dai, G., Zou, X., & Qi, J. (2020). Robustness-based multi-objective optimization for repetitive projects under work continuity uncertainty. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(10), 3095-3113.
Zhu, F., Hu, H., & Xu, F. (2022). Risk assessment model for international construction projects considering risk interdependence using the DEMATEL method. PLoS ONE, 17(5), e0265972.
Zhu, F., Zhong, P. A., & Sun, Y. (2018). Multi-criteria group decision making under uncertainty: Application in reservoir flood control operation. Environmental Modelling & Software, 100, 236-251.
دوره 1، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 2
تابستان 1403
صفحه 77-102

  • تاریخ دریافت 20 خرداد 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری 15 تیر 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش 23 شهریور 1403
  • تاریخ انتشار 26 شهریور 1403