Modern Studies in Management and Organization

Modern Studies in Management and Organization

Risk Assessment in the Project of Planning and Launching the Production of Shahin Automobile Cylinder Block (Case of Saipa Malleable Company)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran
2 Master's degree, Department of Industrial Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran
Abstract
The purpose of the present study is to assess the risk in planning and launching the production of the cylinder block of the Shahin automobile. This research is exploratory, which seeks to determine the risk in planning and launching the production of the cylinder block of the Shahin automobile in the Saipa Company using the TOPSIS approach, risk matrix, and Monte Carlo expert system. For this purpose, by reviewing articles and interviewing experts, the conceptual model dimensions of economic benefit indicators, technology benefit indicators, and technology readiness indicators were identified, each of which had its sub-criteria. In this way, and using the TOPSIS method, rankings were given in each of the identified indicators. The results of the study showed that the most important criteria were obtained in the following order: comparative advantage, technological knowledge, top management support, certainty, profitability, security, rate of return on capital, necessary knowledge and skills, observability, compatibility, sufficient financial investment, IT standards, IT skills, complexity and technology infrastructure. Also, according to the results obtained from the sum of the coefficients in each dimension, the most important dimensions were identified, so that the order of the identified dimensions was technological benefits, organizational factors, economic benefits, and technological readiness. Furthermore, based on a Monte Carlo simulation, 11 different cases were examined, which showed the accuracy of the results about the severity of the identified risks.
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Volume 1, Issue 2 - Serial Number 2
Summer 2024
Pages 77-102

  • Receive Date 09 June 2024
  • Revise Date 05 July 2024
  • Accept Date 13 September 2024
  • Publish Date 16 September 2024